The swine flu can turn into a disaster due to constant mutations. The virus is changing quickly sidestepping natural barriers and things we do to stop it. Imagine trying to control flu germs whose only goal in life is to grow/spread as much as possible. We put up hurtles to control it. The germ sees the barriers when it infects us. It notices what helps it grow and what does not. The virus will try to defuse anything that prevents it from spreading.
We use vaccines to cause immunity to the germ. The virus changes so that our immune system no longer sees it. This is already happening now with the mutated germ in the Ukraine that shows a low reactor to the vaccine. This means that if this mutated form of the germ were to spread, the vaccine would not work.
Another tool we use to help us control the flu virus is antiviral drugs like Tamiflu/Oseltamivir and Relenza. These drugs up to now have worked well in preventing serious illness or death from the swine flu. However, the mutated form of the swine flu is rapidly becoming resistant to Tamiflu. Tamiflu is our main weapon to control the swine flu now. In the last two weeks, the number of cases resistant to Tamiflu has grown quickly. A December 2 report from the World Health Organization shows there were 57 cases of the resistant strain and in only two weeks, that number moved to 96 cases. Relenza is now the drug we must use to control the swine flu in the future. The point is the virus can quickly defuse our weapons to control it.
Vaccinations of millions of people can cause a virus to change to avoid losing its ability to infect. Therefore, it would try to change to keep growing. If it believes that its existence is threatened, it could do things it would not ordinarily do. This could come about by mixing with another virus to make it stronger and harder to stop. If it could get the ability to grow faster, that would help it infect more people. The mutation in the Ukraine had reports of 250,000 cases a day and over a million in a week. This would help it survive. The mutation increases its survival prospects by connecting deeper in the lungs. This could help it to grow faster and be more deadly. It would be more deadly due to deep penetration and rapid growth in our vital organs the lungs. The seasonal flu attaches to our less vulnerable nose and throat area. The germ could get these needed traits by continuing to evolve by infecting billions of people. On the other hand, it could reassort with another germ like the H5N1 virus that could help it grow faster in the lungs killing its victim. The H5N1 germ has a kill rate now of over 50%. The swine flu virus however does not need to reassort with H5N1 to become much more deadly.
The H1N1 swine flu’s mother was the infamous record-breaking Spanish H1N1 flu that killed between 50 and a 100 million people worldwide. There are some missing elements in the swine flu’s structure compared to the 1918 strain but maybe the other traits will evolve over time. There are a few key things that both mother and son have in common. Both attach deeply in the lungs causing many to die due to a cytokine storm that would destroy the lungs causing them to turn black before death. Also, the people they killed the most were and are the youngest and strongest. Instead, the seasonal flu kills the people over 65 years old the most. In addition, the 1918 Spanish flu started much the same way as the swine flu. Both germs were mild initially but turned very nasty after evolving to a much more dangerous form.
The 1918 Spanish flu started in late January and early February. By October and November, it had reached its peak in killing efficiency. That means it took approximately 10 months to a year to reach its peak. All pandemics are different. However, if the swine flu’s first appearance was in April, then we could have a very interesting flu later this year. I would guess sometime in the winter flu season in the northern hemisphere. Look out for fireworks.
With the anti-viral drugs, soon to be non-effective and the vaccine useless against the mutated strain, the best way to control the flu is through prevention.
Flu viruses love cold weather and this winter looks like it is going to be a cold one. This cold weather will allow the virus to mutate even more possibly causing many problems.
In summary look at the following reasons, the virus could turn into a disaster in the coming winter flu season.
A. The mutated strain that started in the Ukraine a few weeks ago has already spread to at least the following countries:
1. Norway
2. Japan
3. Brazil
4. China
5. United States
6. Netherlands
7. France
8. Italy
9. Mexico
The WHO (World Health Organization) said on November 20 "The mutations appear to occur sporadically and spontaneously. To date, no links between the small numbers of patients infected with the mutated virus have been found and the mutation does not appear to spread." Remember that the mutated virus was first in the Ukraine where a very large number of people apparently had the virus.
B. The mutated virus infected 250,000 a day and over a million people in a week.
This germ moves fast.
C. The vaccine has a low reactor rating with the mutated virus, which means that the vaccine will not protect you against the mutated strain.
D. The virus is rapidly mutating to make our antiviral medicines useless against it.
E. The swine flu H1N1 virus has the worlds must deadly ancestor as a mother.
G. The 1918 Spanish H1N1 Flu took 10 months to 1 year before it reached its peak of destructive ability.
H. The world has another killer in the H5N1 bird flu, which is endemic all over Asia and Africa that could easily mix with the H1N1 virus creating a real problem.
The 1918 Spanish flu would appear in waves lasting 6 to 8 weeks separated by relative calm. The swine flu could during the time of the “Quiet before the Storm” when it disappears from sight become much more dangerous. That is when the mutations mentioned above could evolve to create a grown up swine flu. Get a free control flu manual by going to this link http://birdflusecrets.com. A 165 pages interactive/multimedia e-Book manual will help you learn quick and easy how to control the swine flu.
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