When will science be able to outsmart the flu (swine flu) MOTHER NATURES CHILD? Will it happen now or ten years from now? Right now, I think Mother Nature is still one-step in front. There is a new mutation in the H1N1 (PB2) gene recently seen at the National Institute of Virology.
This gene change was part of all seasonal flu since 1918. They call it E627K. In the past, it causes the germ to copy itself more easily at lower temperatures. This would occur in nose/throat/trachea/lungs. Rising the H1N1 presents in these places and making it more lethal. Recently, The E627K change was in three people in India. The fact that three people all had this at the same time/place means that it is spreading. It also means the flu (Swine flu) could have much more of it when the flu comes back.
The E627K most likely will cause the flu (swine flu) to be more TRANSMISSIBLE. The European Center for Disease Prevention and control (ECDC) said H1N1 would most likely spread at low levels in the Spring/Summer. Then it would be the most dominate/threatening strain in the winter in Europe.
That is unless it gets more transmissible now. That is what is happening now. The swine flu moved fast before but it did not have this accelerator.
This is not the seasonal flu. Our vaccine system is too slow to handle a quick changing pandemic flu germ. The germ can adapt fast.
At the start of the swine flu, it was like a baby looking to evolve. It had not made contact with us before, so everything was new. It spread far/fast all over the world in only 6 weeks. It had no problems and it never got tired. There was nothing to hold it back. However, now it has spread to 15% plus of the world. Also, about 15% plus of the world have a flu shot. This immunity has forced it to create new strains to help it survive.
The flu (swine flu) has come up with a few new mutations that could help it survive. However, they could make it hard on us. They include the following:
1. E627K makes it easier for one person to spread the germ to more people than it did before. For example, Instead of one person infecting (1/2) people, one person may infect maybe (2/3) people. It helps the germ replicate in the nose/throat/trachea /lungs. The increase of H1N1 in these areas creates a more complete infection that could lead to more severe/fatal cases. This change adds more pieces to the puzzle.
2. The D225G/N is the big one. It has the most potential to create the most harm. It links to 27/37 fatal lung samples in the Ukraine. The strain is showing up all over the world. It has near a 100% death rate. It also, shows a low reactor to the flu shot. The D225G was part of the infamous 1918 flu. Currently, it’s % of the H1N1 pie is low. However, this is the big question. How much will each of these strains affect the next wave? I hope that the impact will be small. Go here for more details.
3. G158E links to a “low reactor” by Mill Hill and the CDC. This means that the flu shot will most likely not work well against it. The flu shot for next year does not account for this new strain. It is growing more/more in Europe/Asia. Go here fore more facts.
4. H274Y this one links to Tamiflu resistance. When H274Y was in the seasonal flu, Tamiflu did not work well. Tamiflu/Osletamivir is the main drug used to lessen H1N1 symptoms. Relenza the next best choice works well. However, it has production issues. There will not be enough to care for the world in a strong wave.
All of these changes point to more severe/fatal cases.
The Third Swine Flu Wave Could Be obvious in a Few Weeks.
Georgia hospitals grow by 80 patients due to the flu (swine flu) from 3/3 to 3/9. This number is only one less than the record made in 9/23 to 9/29 of 2009. It is however, a record weekly increase from 42 in the week before. This is a strong sign that the third wave is starting. This same thing occurred in the 1918/1957/1968 pandemics. They all had flu waves in the fall. And they had another wave in the winter/spring. Three waves in about a year links the swine flu with its mother the 1918 flu. It was the worst flu outbreak of all times. It killed up to 50 to 100 million people.
See the other states in region 4 that show higher signs of H1N1 below:
1. AL
2. FL
3. GA
4. KY
5. MS
6. NC
7. SC
8. TN
Go here for more details.
Some of the colleges in the states above are reporting higher H1N1 cases. Children spread the germ easily when they mix at school. The same thing occurs with college students. The germ spreads better in crowds. Click here for more facts.
The new strains will make an impact on the next wave. No one knows to what extent. However, it is better to be safe than sorry.
EXPECT THE BEST but prepare for the WORST.
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